Revalen
28-11-2004, 21:24
NOTE: This is the second part of an on-going conflict between the Federation and the Evil Overlord. The first part may be seen here: http://forums2.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=339979
Bayn Dirhan ar Lin, Strategos for the Federation Armed Forces, stared at the Head of the Council in shock. He was momentarily at a loss for words. He leaned heavily on the desk before him and visibly gathered his wits.
"You cannot be serious," he finally managed. "What idiot thought up this lunacy?"
Vrin Dirhan an Sel, First among Equals in the Council of Syndics, leaned back in his chair and kept his smile to himself. He had served the Federation since he'd graduated from the prestigious Federation Lyceum more than thirty years ago, and there was little he did not know about keeping the military firmly under the control of the Council. "You are displeased? It is largely based on your recommendations."
"I recommended increasing the military budget and continued focus on our traditional strengths: information and electronic warfare." Bayn shook his head and calmed himself with another visible effort. "I most certainly did not recommend this!"
"You got what you wanted. The Council authorized increasing the size of the Armed Forces by 22%, and overall military spending is up another 14% beyond that."
The Strategos sank back into his chair. "That's as may be. It will take three years to get the Armed Forces up to a level comparable to the Overlord's. This plan you are abusing my mind with will result in full-scale war with the Dominion in less time than that."
Vrin arched an eyebrow. "Intelligence analysis indicates a 10% chance of catastrophic failure, which would result in war with the Overlord. Given the nature of the threat, the Council feels those are acceptable odds."
Holding himself absolutely still as his mind raced, Bayn finally said. "Unless my ears have deceived me, you said the chances of catastrophic failure are 10%. What are the odds of total success?"
"It is all listed in the Council sub-committee report on your desk." Vrin smiled slightly. "10% chance of total success. 30% chance of succeeding enough to make a military difference. 30% chance of having no effect at all. 20% chance of failing indetectably. 10% chance of catastrophic failure."
"Are you actually willing to risk the existence of the Federation on a less than 50% chance of success?" Bayn demanded.
Vrin waved a hand dismissively. "Our analysis is that the Overlord is unlikely to engage in total war over this issue. The worst-case scenario you envisage was completely dismissed by the Office of Foreign Intelligence. The Council feels that any military actions resulting from Operation Mosquito would be limited- similar to the recent dispute over the Redoubt oil fields."
"My lord, it is my job to imagine worst-case scenarios." The Strategos leaned forward and locked eyes with Vrin. "I am an expert in spotting pitfalls before the Council falls into them. The analyses you quote are little more than educated guesswork, and the risks are so extreme that relying on guesswork is rash to the point of insanity."
Vrin stood and nodded. "It is also your duty to carry out the wishes of the Council. My coming here to tell you in person was a courtesy, not an opportunity to hear your objections. Operation Mosquito begins in three days. You will issue the appropriate orders, and give this operation your full support." He turned to go. "I will expect your report on your actions in support of this operation within the week, through the usual channels. I can see myself out."
Bayn Dirhan ar Lin, Strategos for the Federation Armed Forces, stared at the Head of the Council in shock. He was momentarily at a loss for words. He leaned heavily on the desk before him and visibly gathered his wits.
"You cannot be serious," he finally managed. "What idiot thought up this lunacy?"
Vrin Dirhan an Sel, First among Equals in the Council of Syndics, leaned back in his chair and kept his smile to himself. He had served the Federation since he'd graduated from the prestigious Federation Lyceum more than thirty years ago, and there was little he did not know about keeping the military firmly under the control of the Council. "You are displeased? It is largely based on your recommendations."
"I recommended increasing the military budget and continued focus on our traditional strengths: information and electronic warfare." Bayn shook his head and calmed himself with another visible effort. "I most certainly did not recommend this!"
"You got what you wanted. The Council authorized increasing the size of the Armed Forces by 22%, and overall military spending is up another 14% beyond that."
The Strategos sank back into his chair. "That's as may be. It will take three years to get the Armed Forces up to a level comparable to the Overlord's. This plan you are abusing my mind with will result in full-scale war with the Dominion in less time than that."
Vrin arched an eyebrow. "Intelligence analysis indicates a 10% chance of catastrophic failure, which would result in war with the Overlord. Given the nature of the threat, the Council feels those are acceptable odds."
Holding himself absolutely still as his mind raced, Bayn finally said. "Unless my ears have deceived me, you said the chances of catastrophic failure are 10%. What are the odds of total success?"
"It is all listed in the Council sub-committee report on your desk." Vrin smiled slightly. "10% chance of total success. 30% chance of succeeding enough to make a military difference. 30% chance of having no effect at all. 20% chance of failing indetectably. 10% chance of catastrophic failure."
"Are you actually willing to risk the existence of the Federation on a less than 50% chance of success?" Bayn demanded.
Vrin waved a hand dismissively. "Our analysis is that the Overlord is unlikely to engage in total war over this issue. The worst-case scenario you envisage was completely dismissed by the Office of Foreign Intelligence. The Council feels that any military actions resulting from Operation Mosquito would be limited- similar to the recent dispute over the Redoubt oil fields."
"My lord, it is my job to imagine worst-case scenarios." The Strategos leaned forward and locked eyes with Vrin. "I am an expert in spotting pitfalls before the Council falls into them. The analyses you quote are little more than educated guesswork, and the risks are so extreme that relying on guesswork is rash to the point of insanity."
Vrin stood and nodded. "It is also your duty to carry out the wishes of the Council. My coming here to tell you in person was a courtesy, not an opportunity to hear your objections. Operation Mosquito begins in three days. You will issue the appropriate orders, and give this operation your full support." He turned to go. "I will expect your report on your actions in support of this operation within the week, through the usual channels. I can see myself out."